A股龙头猪企相继发布2月销售情况，有人欢喜有人忧。猪企与猪周期板块的投资者，都在等待2024年的猪周期拐点，能来吗？

销售均价环涨

3月以来，7家猪企相继发布2月销售简报，有部分猪企抢跑，也有部分猪企受“冷风”吹。

“猪茅”牧原股份1-2月生猪销售简报显示，1-2月其销售生猪1054万头，销售收入166.35亿元。去年前2月，该公司销售生猪884.4万头，销售收入146.65亿元。

再看温氏股份，公司2月销售肉猪192.21万头，收入33.38亿元，环比变动分别为-27.12%、-21.33%。今年1-2月，温氏股份累计实现肉猪销售收入75.81亿元，同比增长23.47%。

与前两家同行相比，新希望的表现有点不尽人意。公司披露，2月销售生猪130.88万头，环比变动-24.12%，同比变动-24.48%；收入18.36亿元，环比变动-14.96%，同比变动-27.74%。新希望称，商品猪销量环比减少较大的主要原因是春节假期影响销售。

春节前往往是猪肉销售旺季。今年1月，新希望销售生猪172.48万头，环比变动17.05%，同比变动33.59%；收入为21.59亿元，环比变动17.98%，同比变动5.27%。

同时不太乐观的还有天邦食品，公司2月销售商品猪40.12万头，销售收入44247.50万元，环比变动分别为-42.81%、-30.80%。天邦食品提到，2月公司生猪销量环比下降主要系2月春节假期影响销售天数。

另外，大北农、金新农、东瑞股份2月生猪销售数量、销售收入环比、同比均为下降态势。

需要一提的是，商品猪均价方面，上述7家猪企环比均上涨。

1-2月，牧原股份商品猪价格结束四连降，相比2023年12月份上升3.13%。温氏股份2月毛猪销售均价14.29元/公斤，环比变动为3.85%。新希望2月商品猪销售均价13.86元/公斤，环比变动4.21%。天邦食品2月销售均价14.53元/公斤（商品肥猪均价为13.50元/公斤），环比变动10.09%，此前已连降5个月。

另外，金新农商品猪销售均价由1月13.46元/公斤升至2月14.08元/公斤。大北农商品肥猪销售均价由13.66元升至13.84元/公斤。东瑞股份2月商品猪销售均价16.03元/公斤，环比上升4.41%，此前也已连降5个月。

“极限竞争”

从业绩上看，上市猪企2023年的日子并不好过。

如，牧原股份披露业绩预告显示，预计2023年归母净利润亏损39亿元-47亿元，上年同期盈利132.66亿元；预计扣非后净利润亏损37亿元-45亿元，上年同期为盈利146.90亿元。这是牧原股份上市以来首次年度亏损，原因主要系报告期内生猪价格大幅下降。

温氏股份2023年度业绩快报显示，报告期内公司实现营收899.18亿元，同比增长7.4%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-63.29亿元，上年同期为52.89亿元，同比下降219.66%。

新希望预计，2023年，公司归母净利润扭亏为盈，预计盈利30000万元，上年同期为亏损146061.00万元，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计亏损450000万元，上年同期为亏损95187.96万元。

公司归母净利扭亏为盈却没有“二师兄”的功劳。新希望称，报告期内，公司白羽肉禽与食品深加工业务引进战略投资影响归母净利润增加，影响金额约为51亿元-52亿元。受生猪销售价格下降影响，猪产业亏损是本期扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损的主要原因。

3月初，温氏股份在调研中表示，当前鸡猪低迷行情下，畜禽养殖行业处于极限竞争状态，行业盈利能力和资金压力受到较大的影响。

“猪周期迎重要转折”

上市猪企能否从困境中突围，主要取决于这场猪周期能否在2024年迎来拐点。

农业农村部日前出台《生猪产能调控实施方案（2024年修订）》，将全国能繁母猪正常保有量目标从4100万头调整为3900万头，将能繁母猪存栏量正常波动（绿色区域）下限从正常保有量的95%调整至92%。

东兴证券研报表示，此次修订为生猪养殖产能进一步去化奠定了政策基础。研报称，产能去化的持续累积将带来猪价的周期拐点，2024年上半年有望见到价格拐点，2024年下半年猪价有望全面改善，板块估计处于历史较低位置，持续推荐生猪养殖板块。

福能期货研报称，1月份的能繁母猪存栏量为4067万头，高于3900万头这一调整后的目标，处在产能调控绿色区域。但根据以往数据看，3900万头的能繁母猪对应的猪价为统计区间高点，出现于2020年的8月31日，当时生猪价格为36.72元/吨。如果产能出清效果好的话将会开启新一轮猪周期，猪价上涨的幅度可以根据出清效果判断。

民生证券研报认为，2024年，无论是从生猪养殖行业还是从整个猪周期的角度来说，都迎来了重大的转折点。在周期的新常态下，当前的利润将不是驱动养殖个体行为决策的唯一因素，行业内的各种类型主体都更加受预期引导的影响。过去市场单一以出栏成长性论估值的方法需要修正，个股在长周期中的盈利能力才是其产能和出栏量是否能够兑现的必要前提。

华西证券研报则认为，短期来看，供大于求的局面尚无显著改善，猪价尚不具备大幅上涨的基础，后期猪价低位震荡可能性较大。

3月7日，Wind猪产业指数（884251）有所回升，收涨0.49%；中证畜牧指数(930707)上涨0.4%，成分股傲农生物涨停，贤丰控股涨超4%，川金诺、唐人神等跟涨。另外，畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.5%，成交额达2613万元。

(文中观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。)

封面、导语图来源包图网

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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: 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重要信号！“二师兄”销售均价涨了，上市猪企或结束亏损