投资要点：

1、新旧动能切换，小儿豉翘成增长主引擎

2、二线品种+BD共同打造第二增长曲线

3、盈利预测

济川药业（600566）

一、新旧动能切换，小儿豉翘成增长主引擎

济川药业三大核心药品蒲地蓝消炎口服液、雷贝拉唑钠肠溶胶囊和小儿豉翘清热颗粒在细分领域市占率位居行业前列，2022年三者收入合计占比72%。近几年来清热解毒和消化类占比均有所下降，而儿科药占比从2018年的17%已提升至2022年的27%，逐渐成为新的增长驱动力。

蒲地蓝消炎口服液是公司独家剂型，根据米内网数据统计，公司以蒲地蓝消炎口服液为主的清热解毒用药中成药在2022年全国城市公立医院清热解毒用药中成药市场占比15.66%，排名第一。蒲地蓝消炎口服液退出医保目录后，公司转而发力零售渠道，2022年蒲地蓝消炎口服液零售端的销售额从2019年的4.5亿元上升至7.6亿元，退保影响已出清。

从样本医院销售额来看，近3年雷贝拉唑钠肠溶胶囊的销售已经有所下滑。同时公司在消化领域亦有健胃消食口服液、硫酸镁钠钾口服用浓溶液、甘海胃康胶囊等二线品种正处于快速上升势头，预计雷贝拉唑的集采对公司整体业绩影响较小。

儿科药虽然是近年来政策鼓励支持的方向，但获批新药的数量却不多，2019年至今，仅天士力、方盛制药、健民集团、济川药业4家有儿科新药获批，整体儿科用药的竞争格局相对较优。米内网数据显示，以小儿豉翘清热颗粒为主的儿科感冒用中成药在2022年全国公立医院儿科感冒用中成药市场占比47.82%，位列第一。

小儿豉翘清热颗粒的亮眼表现，带动了公司儿科产品线的销售收入连续高增，2022年儿科产品收入占公司整体收入比重达到27%。基药目录调整在即，公司儿科类产品有较大可能进入基药目录，带来广阔基层医疗市场的增量。

二、二线品种+BD共同打造第二增长曲线

健胃消食口服液为济川独家剂型品种，用于脾胃虚弱所致的食积、消化不良等，该药入选了中华医学会儿科分会消化学组制定的《中国儿童功能性消化不良诊断和治疗共识（2022版）》。

健胃消食同类产品中，江中药业的健胃消食片已经是10亿级大单品，凭借公司突出的销售能力，健胃消食口服液有望保持快速放量。硫酸镁钠钾口服用浓溶液和甘海胃康也都是各有特点的消化领域用药，有望与健胃消食口服液形成协同，进一步壮大公司在消化领域用药的布局。

蛋白琥珀酸铁口服液是公司独家首仿产品，目前国内只有济川药业和原研厂家ITALFARMACO生产销售，数据显示截止2023年Q3，济川药业市场份额已经接近60%，领先于原研厂家，也足可见公司强大的销售能力。

黄龙止咳颗粒为子公司东科制药独家品种，黄龙止咳颗粒入选《儿童变应性鼻炎-哮喘综合征中西医结合诊治专家共识（2023）》，未来新适应症的拓展有望进一步打开其销售空间。

自2021年以来，公司相继宣布与天境生物、恒翼生物、征祥医药等开展BD合作，主要产品都已推进到临床关键阶段，有望于2025-2026年陆续获批上市。公司在儿科领域有丰富的销售优势，销售渠道覆盖全国30个省、市和自治区，预计伊坦生长激素（TJ101）上市之后，有望借助公司成熟的院内及OTC销售渠道布局进行市场推广，实现快速放量。

玛巴洛沙韦同靶点药品目前竞争格局良好，除玛巴洛沙韦获批以外，ZX-7101A目前研发进度领先，上市申请已于2024年2月正式受理。截止2023年Q3，公司货币资金+交易性金融资产合计约100亿，充沛的现金储备也为公司BD持续落地奠定了坚实的基础。

三、盈利预测

中泰证券预计2023-2025年公司实现营业收入95.59、102.34、112.13亿元，同比增长6.25%、7.06%、9.57%，实现归母净利润25.52、28.55、31.85亿元，同比增长17.55%、11.90%、11.54%。公司对应2023-2025年PE为13、11、10倍，低于同类可比公司，当前估值具备较高性价比。

考虑到公司核心品种竞争格局稳定、市场份额领先，夯实业绩稳健增长的基础，二线品种发力及BD落地带来第二增长曲线，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。

风险提示：集采降价风险；核心产品销售不及预期风险；商业化进度不及预期风险；研报使用信息数据更新不及时的风险。

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公司核心品种竞争格局稳定、市场份额领先，健胃消食口服液等二线品种发力及BD落地带来第二增长曲线